Both teams to score
Yes63%
ours 1.59
No37%
ours 2.69
All matches
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FC Aarau — FC Wil 1900, Challenge League
Switzerland, Challenge League
FC Aarau
LDWDW
FC Wil 1900
WLDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
62%22%16%
FC Aarau62%Draw22%FC Wil 190016%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Aarau1.61—
XDraw4.60—
2FC Wil 19006.15—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFC AarauFC Wil 1900Combined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners9.310.09.7
Cards1.01.32.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FC AarauFC Wil 1900
FC Aarau 62%, FC Wil 1900 16%. The safest is “FC Aarau or draw” at 81%.
FC Aarau 62%Draw 22%FC Wil 1900 16%
1st half
46 · 34 · 20
2nd half
47 · 31 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
FC Aarau
- awayFC Winterthur1:2
- homeSC Kriens2:2
- homeFC Rapperswil-Jona3:2
- awayFC Wil 19002:2
- homeNeuchâtel Xamax FCS2:1
FC Wil 1900
- homeFC Stade Nyonnais5:0
- awayFC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0:4
- awayÉtoile Carouge FC1:1
- homeFC Aarau2:2
- awayYverdon Sport FC1:1
Head to head
- 08/31/26Challenge League2:2
- 04/25/26Challenge League2:2
- 02/07/26Challenge League2:2
- 10/24/25Challenge League2:0
- 08/01/25Challenge League3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Yverdon Sport FC944114:916
Yverdon Sport FC944114:9164
SC Kriens942316:1114
SC Kriens942316:11145FC Aarau933314:1612
FC Aarau933314:16126
Neuchâtel Xamax FCS940512:1712
Neuchâtel Xamax FCS940512:17127
FC Rapperswil-Jona931515:1610
FC Rapperswil-Jona931515:16108
Étoile Carouge FC92348:129
Étoile Carouge FC92348:1299FC Wil 1900923415:219
FC Wil 1900923415:21910
FC Stade Nyonnais90276:232
FC Stade Nyonnais90276:232Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.