Neuchâtel Xamax FCS — FC Aarau, Challenge League

Switzerland, Challenge LeagueOctober 30 at 07:15 PM

Neuchâtel Xamax FCS

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FC Aarau

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Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

28%23%49%

Neuchâtel Xamax FCS28%Draw23%FC Aarau49%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Neuchâtel Xamax FCS28%3.56—

XDraw23%4.27—

2FC Aarau49%2.06—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.59

No37%

ours 2.70

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNeuchâtel Xamax FCSFC AarauCombined

Goals scored0.671.332.00

Conceded1.671.333.00

Corners8.39.08.6

Cards1.31.32.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

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69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Neuchâtel Xamax FCSFC Aarau

Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 28%, FC Aarau 49%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.

Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 28%Draw 23%FC Aarau 49%

1st half

30 · 35 · 35

2nd half

27 · 34 · 39

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context