All matches

Cuiaba — Sao Bernardo, Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

Cuiaba
1.8WLWDW
—
Sao Bernardo
1.9WDWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
52%26%22%
Cuiaba52%Draw26%Sao Bernardo22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cuiaba52%1.91—
XDraw26%3.92—
2Sao Bernardo22%4.49—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.87

No47%

ours 2.15

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCuiabaSao BernardoCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.500.170.67
Corners10.511.010.8
Cards4.51.56.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CuiabaSao Bernardo

Cuiabá EC 52%, São Bernardo FC 22%. The safest is “Cuiabá EC or draw” at 79%.

Cuiabá EC 52%Draw 25%São Bernardo FC 22%
1st half
40 · 42 · 18
2nd half
38 · 37 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cuiaba

  • homePonte Preta2:0
  • awayCRB0:3
  • homeNautico3:0
  • awayGremio Novorizontino1:1
  • homeAthletic (MG)3:0

Sao Bernardo

  • homeCRB3:1
  • awayGremio Novorizontino0:0
  • homeAC Goianiense1:0
  • awayAmerica Mineiro2:0
  • homeLondrina1:2

Head to head

  • 07/12/26Serie B2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Operario Ferroviario31139943:4148
9SC do Recife311211842:3347
10Cuiaba311113732:2546
11Sao Bernardo311291043:3245
12Athletic (MG)311012937:3542
13Nautico311191139:3842

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.