All matches

SC do Recife — São Bernardo FC, Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

SC do Recife
1.4LWLWL
—
São Bernardo FC
1.9DWWLW
Outcome probability
512723
SC do Recife51%Draw27%São Bernardo FC23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1SC do Recife51%1.98—
XDraw27%3.71—
2São Bernardo FC23%4.43—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.07

No52%

ours 1.94

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC do RecifeSão Bernardo FCCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded1.330.331.66
Corners12.210.611.4
Cards1.41.83.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    SC do RecifeSão Bernardo FC
    59.00%Possession45.60%
    5Days of rest4
    9Table position11
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    SC do Recife look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

SC do Recife

  • awayClube Náutico Capibaribe1:3
  • homeEC Juventude2:1
  • awayClube de Regatas Brasil1:2
  • homeAssociacao Atletica Ponte Preta2:0
  • awayCeará SC1:2

São Bernardo FC

  • awayGrêmio Novorizontino0:0
  • homeAC Goianiense1:0
  • awayAmérica FC - Minas Gerais2:0
  • homeLondrina EC1:2
  • awayAssociacao Atletica Ponte Preta2:0

Head to head

  • 06/14/26Serie B0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Operário Ferroviário EC30139843:3848
8Clube de Regatas Brasil301461045:4148
9SC do Recife301111840:3244
10Cuiabá EC301013730:2543
11São Bernardo FC301191040:3142
12Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)301012836:3342
13Goiás EC301261230:3642

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.