Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.85
No46%
ours 2.18
All matches
—
Sao Bernardo — Criciuma, Serie B
Brazil, Serie B
Sao Bernardo
1.9WDWWL
Criciuma
2.0WWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%26%30%
Sao Bernardo43%Draw26%Criciuma30%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sao Bernardo2.31—
XDraw3.80—
2Criciuma3.29—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSao BernardoCriciumaCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded0.171.001.17
Corners10.811.010.9
Cards1.82.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Sao BernardoCriciuma
São Bernardo FC 43%, Criciuma EC 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
São Bernardo FC 43%Draw 26%Criciuma EC 30%
1st half
29 · 43 · 28
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Sao Bernardo
- homeCRB3:1
- awayGremio Novorizontino0:0
- homeAC Goianiense1:0
- awayAmerica Mineiro2:0
- homeLondrina1:2
Criciuma
- awayLondrina2:0
- homeAvai3:0
- homeOperario Ferroviario0:2
- awayAC Goianiense0:4
- homeJuventude0:2
Head to head
- 06/27/26Serie B0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Gremio Novorizontino31159752:2754
Gremio Novorizontino31159752:27544
Fortaleza311411636:2753
Fortaleza311411636:27535Criciuma31158833:2753
Criciuma31158833:27536
AC Goianiense311410739:2752
AC Goianiense311410739:27527
CRB311461146:4448
CRB311461146:44488
Operario Ferroviario31139943:4148
Operario Ferroviario31139943:41489
SC do Recife311211842:3347
SC do Recife311211842:334710
Cuiaba311113732:2546
Cuiaba311113732:254611Sao Bernardo311291043:3245
Sao Bernardo311291043:324512
Athletic (MG)311012937:3542
Athletic (MG)311012937:354213
Nautico311191139:3842
Nautico311191139:3842Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.