Vila Nova FC — Cuiabá EC, Serie B

Brazil, Serie BOctober 7 at 11:30 PM

Vila Nova FC

2.1WWDWL

—

Cuiabá EC

1.8LWDWL

Outcome probability

482824

Vila Nova FC48%Draw28%Cuiabá EC24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Vila Nova FC48%2.09—

XDraw28%3.56—

2Cuiabá EC24%4.17—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.33

No57%

ours 1.75

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVila Nova FCCuiabá ECCombined

Goals scored1.001.172.17

Conceded1.001.002.00

Corners9.011.210.1

Cards2.42.04.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Vila Nova FCCuiabá EC
1Table position10
49.20%Possession45.00%
4.1Days of rest4.1
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Vila Nova FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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