All matches

Fluminense FC — Coritiba FBC, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Fluminense FC
2.6WLWDW
—
Coritiba FBC
2.3LDLWW
Outcome probability
632215
Fluminense FC63%Draw22%Coritiba FBC15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fluminense FC63%66%1.601.51-3.8
XDraw22%23%4.494.33-0.8
2Coritiba FBC15%15%6.596.76+0.4

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93book 1.98

No48%

ours 2.08book 1.74

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFluminense FCCoritiba FBCCombined
Goals scored2.171.673.84
Conceded1.672.334.00
Corners10.812.811.8
Cards3.01.84.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Fluminense FCCoritiba FBC
    4Table position9
    54.50%Possession41.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Fluminense FC: a home win is rated at 63%. Bookmakers price this at 1.51.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Fluminense FC

  • awaySC Corinthians Paulista3:1
  • awayCA Mineiro1:3
  • homeCR Vasco da Gama1:0
  • awayCA Paranaense3:3
  • homeClube do Remo2:1

Coritiba FBC

  • awayCR Vasco da Gama0:5
  • homeCA Paranaense3:3
  • homeMirassol Futebol Clube1:2
  • awayClube do Remo3:2
  • homeSC Corinthians Paulista2:1

Head to head

  • 04/04/26Serie A1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2SE Palmeiras28169347:2157
3CA Paranaense28147743:3249
4Fluminense FC28139644:3648
5EC Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro EC28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro27117936:3240
8Santos FC Sao Paulo27108941:4038
9Coritiba FBC281081037:4338
10Clube Atlético Bragantino271061133:3136
11São Paulo FC271061132:3036

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.