Córdoba CF — SD Eibar, Segunda División

Spain, Segunda DivisiónOctober 24 at 12:00 PM

Córdoba CF

1.8LWLLL

—

SD Eibar

2.4WWWWW

Outcome probability

272647

Córdoba CF27%Draw26%SD Eibar47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Córdoba CF27%3.71—

XDraw26%3.82—

2SD Eibar47%2.13—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCórdoba CFSD EibarCombined

Goals scored0.501.502.00

Conceded1.000.501.50

Corners7.78.07.8

Cards4.32.77.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Córdoba CFSD Eibar
18Table position2
58.30%Possession39.00%
7.7Days of rest6.9
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, SD Eibar still look stronger — an away win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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