All matches

Córdoba CF — CD Tenerife, Segunda División

Spain, Segunda División

Córdoba CF
1.8LWLLL
—
CD Tenerife
1.4DLWDL
Outcome probability
462727
Córdoba CF46%Draw27%CD Tenerife27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Córdoba CF46%52%2.171.94-5.5
XDraw27%28%3.683.63-0.4
2CD Tenerife27%25%3.733.98+1.6

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.12book 1.67

No53%

ours 1.90book 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCórdoba CFCD TenerifeCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded2.171.333.50
Corners7.36.26.8
Cards3.52.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Córdoba CFCD Tenerife
    18Table position9
    56.80%Possession42.80%
    8.3Days of rest9.1
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Córdoba CF look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 46%. Bookmakers price this at 1.94.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

69%1.22
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Córdoba CF

  • awayReal Valladolid Club de Fútbol1:3
  • awayAlbacete Balompié2:1
  • homeUD Almería0:2
  • awayCE Sabadell FC2:3
  • homeGranada CF1:3

CD Tenerife

  • homeCádiz CF1:1
  • awayCD Castellón0:5
  • homeCD Leganés2:0
  • awayReal Sociedad de Fútbol II1:1
  • homeReal Sporting de Gijón0:1

Head to head

  • 02/15/25Segunda División3:2
  • 12/08/24Segunda División3:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7CE Sabadell FC73318:612
8Real Oviedo73227:411
9CD Tenerife73228:911
10CD Leganés73226:711
11UD Las Palmas731310:1110
12Real Sporting de Gijón73135:610
13Granada CF722310:118
14Real Sociedad de Fútbol II72239:108
15Real Club Celta de Vigo II72238:118
16Real Valladolid Club de Fútbol72236:98
17FC Andorra720512:156
18Córdoba CF720510:166
19CD Eldense71244:95
20Cádiz CF70437:104

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.