Real Oviedo — SD Eibar, Segunda División

Spain, Segunda DivisiónOctober 12 at 04:30 PM

Real Oviedo

1.7WLWDW

—

SD Eibar

2.4WWWWW

Outcome probability

442928

Real Oviedo44%Draw29%SD Eibar28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Real Oviedo44%2.29—

XDraw29%3.50—

2SD Eibar28%3.60—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.71

No63%

ours 1.58

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricReal OviedoSD EibarCombined

Goals scored1.172.173.34

Conceded0.500.501.00

Corners9.47.88.6

Cards2.82.25.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Real OviedoSD Eibar
8Table position2
45.20%Possession34.80%
9.9Days of rest9.2
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Real Oviedo look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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