All matches

Nacional 3:2 Defensor Sporting, Primera División: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Uruguay, Primera DivisiónMatch finished

2.8LWWWW
3:2HT 0:1
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
59%23%18%
NacionalPrice 1.6159%DrawPrice 3.5523%Defensor SportingPrice 4.9118%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.84xG0.77
50Possession, %50
11Shots3
6Shots on target3
13Corners2
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
2Offsides3

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 74 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Landed
    Nacional59%
  • Total goals Missed
    Under 2.552%

    Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 48%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    No53%

    Actual: Yes — we had 47%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Nacional59%59%1.691.61+0.3
XDraw23%24%4.373.55-1.4
2Defensor Sporting18%17%5.544.91+1.1

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Nacional

  • homeLiverpool Montevideo0:1
  • homeMaldonado3:2
  • awayCentral Espanol1:0
  • homeMontevideo City2:0
  • awayCerro Largo2:0

Defensor Sporting

  • awayProgreso2:0
  • homeRacing Montevideo3:3
  • awayBoston River0:1
  • homeCerro2:3
  • awayAlbion2:3

Head to head

  • 09/20/26Primera División3:2
  • 03/21/26Primera División1:2
  • 11/09/25Primera División1:1
  • 05/18/25Primera División2:1
  • 09/21/24Primera División1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Maldonado34188854:3262
4Racing Montevideo351612745:3160
5Nacional341841251:4158
6Liverpool Montevideo341511845:3156
7Montevideo Wanderers361491343:4951
8Albion341371447:4446
9Juventud3410111337:4141
10Central Espanol351181635:4841
11Defensor Sporting359121435:4339
12Cerro Largo359101633:4137
13Boston River351071834:4737

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium

Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.

3 days free

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.