Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.72
No42%
ours 2.39
All matches
Albion — Maldonado, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Albion
1.9WWWWL
Maldonado
2.4WLDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
32%26%42%
Albion32%Draw26%Maldonado42%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Albion3.08—
XDraw3.86—
2Maldonado2.40—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3273 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3263 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3246 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AlbionMaldonado
Albion FC 32%, Club Deportivo Maldonado 42%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Albion FC 32%Draw 26%Club Deportivo Maldonado 42%
1st half
28 · 38 · 34
2nd half
35 · 35 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots on target: Over 6.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAlbionMaldonadoCombined
Goals scored2.002.004.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Albion- 4 wins in a row3:1, 2:1, 1:0, 3:2, 1:2
- 10 goals in the last 5 matches3:1, 2:1, 1:0, 3:2, 1:2
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 53:1, 2:1, 1:0, 3:2, 1:2
Maldonado- 10 goals in the last 5 matches2:1, 2:3, 1:1, 3:0, 2:0
- 2nd in the table — 62 points from 34 matches
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Albion
- awayCentral Espanol3:1
- homeMontevideo City2:1
- awayCerro Largo1:0
- homeDefensor Sporting3:2
- awayMontevideo Wanderers1:2
Maldonado
- homeDanubio2:1
- awayNacional2:3
- homeLiverpool Montevideo1:1
- homeCentral Espanol3:0
- awayMontevideo City2:0
Head to head
- 07/10/26Primera División1:1
- 04/25/26Primera División2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Penarol35208756:2868
Penarol35208756:28682
Maldonado34188854:3262
Maldonado34188854:32623
Montevideo City341861057:4060
Montevideo City341861057:40604
Nacional341841251:4158
Nacional341841251:41585
Racing Montevideo341512742:3057
Racing Montevideo341512742:30576
Liverpool Montevideo341511845:3156
Liverpool Montevideo341511845:31567
Montevideo Wanderers351481342:4850
Montevideo Wanderers351481342:48508
Albion341371447:4446
Albion341371447:44469
Juventud3410111337:4141
Juventud3410111337:414110
Central Espanol341081633:4738
Central Espanol341081633:4738Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.