Both teams to score
Yes52%
ours 1.91book 2.09
No48%
ours 2.10book 1.65
All matches
Penarol — Montevideo Wanderers, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Penarol
3.1DLDWD
Montevideo Wanderers
1.8LLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
65%22%13%
PenarolMarket 1.3865%DrawMarket 4.1522%Montevideo WanderersMarket 7.1013%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Penarol1.541.38-0.5
XDraw4.554.15+0.2
2Montevideo Wanderers7.707.10+0.3
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3273 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3263 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3246 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PenarolMontevideo Wanderers
CA Peñarol 65%, Montevideo Wanderers Fútbol Club 13%. The safest is “CA Peñarol or draw” at 88%.
CA Peñarol 65%Draw 22%Montevideo Wanderers Fútbol Club 13%
1st half
38 · 42 · 20
2nd half
57 · 30 · 13
Bookmakers: 1.38 · 4.15 · 7.10
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPenarolMontevideo WanderersCombined
Goals scored0.601.001.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Penarol- League leaders — 68 points from 35 matches
- Fewest corners in the league in their matches — 8.0 per match16 teams in the league
- Won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings5:1, 0:1, 3:0, 2:0, 2:1
Montevideo Wanderers- 3 defeats in a row0:1, 0:3, 1:3, 2:0, 2:1
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Penarol
- awayJuventud0:0
- awayLiverpool Montevideo0:1
- homeProgreso1:1
- awayRacing Montevideo1:0
- awayMontevideo City1:1
Montevideo Wanderers
- homeProgreso0:1
- awayRacing Montevideo0:3
- homeBoston River1:3
- awayCerro2:0
- homeAlbion2:1
Head to head
- 08/05/26Primera División5:1
- 04/26/26Primera División0:1
- 10/19/25Primera División3:0
- 06/22/25Primera División2:0
- 04/19/25Primera División2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Penarol35208756:2868
Penarol35208756:28682
Maldonado34188854:3262
Maldonado34188854:32623
Montevideo City341861057:4060
Montevideo City341861057:40604
Nacional331841151:4058
Nacional331841151:40585
Racing Montevideo341512742:3057
Racing Montevideo341512742:30576
Liverpool Montevideo331411844:3153
Liverpool Montevideo331411844:31537
Montevideo Wanderers351481342:4850
Montevideo Wanderers351481342:48508
Albion341371447:4446
Albion341371447:44469
Juventud3410111337:4141
Juventud3410111337:4141Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.