Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84book 1.72
No46%
ours 2.19book 1.98
All matches
Liverpool Montevideo — Juventud, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Liverpool Montevideo
2.6WWDWW
Juventud
2.0DLWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
49%26%25%
Liverpool MontevideoMarket 1.8749%DrawMarket 3.3826%JuventudMarket 3.6325%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Liverpool Montevideo2.051.87+0.5
XDraw3.833.38-0.6
2Juventud3.993.63+0.1
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3520 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3509 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3486 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Liverpool MontevideoJuventud
Liverpool FC Montevideo 49%, CA Juventud 25%. The safest is “Liverpool FC Montevideo or draw” at 76%.
Liverpool FC Montevideo 49%Draw 26%CA Juventud 25%
1st half
29 · 42 · 28
2nd half
44 · 34 · 22
Bookmakers: 1.87 · 3.38 · 3.63
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
70%1.43
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLiverpool MontevideoJuventudCombined
Goals scored1.600.402.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Liverpool Montevideo- Unbeaten at home in 6 matches1:0, 3:2, 0:0, 1:0, 4:0
- Unbeaten in 6 matches1:0, 1:0, 1:1, 3:2, 2:1
Juventud- 4 clean sheets in the last 50:0, 0:2, 2:0, 0:0, 0:0
- Only 2 goals in the last 5 matches0:0, 0:2, 2:0, 0:0, 0:0
- One win in the last 5 matches0:0, 0:2, 2:0, 0:0, 0:0
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Liverpool Montevideo
- awayNacional1:0
- homePenarol1:0
- awayMaldonado1:1
- homeProgreso3:2
- awayCentral Espanol2:1
Juventud
- homePenarol0:0
- awayProgreso0:2
- homeRacing Montevideo2:0
- awayBoston River0:0
- homeCerro0:0
Head to head
- 04/25/26Primera División1:1
- 11/01/25Primera División0:1
- 05/04/25Primera División0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
Nacional341841251:4158
Nacional341841251:41585
Racing Montevideo341512742:3057
Racing Montevideo341512742:30576
Liverpool Montevideo341511845:3156
Liverpool Montevideo341511845:31567
Montevideo Wanderers351481342:4850
Montevideo Wanderers351481342:48508
Albion341371447:4446
Albion341371447:44469
Juventud3410111337:4141
Juventud3410111337:414110
Central Espanol341081633:4738
Central Espanol341081633:473811
Cerro Largo349101532:3837
Cerro Largo349101532:3837Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.