Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.96book 1.86
No49%
ours 2.04book 1.83
All matches
Danubio — Nacional, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Danubio
1.6LWLWL
Nacional
2.8LWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
21%26%54%
DanubioMarket 4.3021%DrawMarket 3.5026%NacionalMarket 1.7054%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Danubio4.784.30-0.1
XDraw3.923.50-0.3
2Nacional1.871.70+0.4
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3520 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3509 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3486 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
DanubioNacional
Danubio Fútbol Club 21%, Club Nacional de Football 54%. The safest is “Club Nacional de Football or draw” at 79%.
Danubio Fútbol Club 21%Draw 26%Club Nacional de Football 54%
1st half
28 · 44 · 27
2nd half
15 · 35 · 50
Bookmakers: 4.30 · 3.50 · 1.70
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricDanubioNacionalCombined
Goals scored0.801.602.40
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Danubio- Relegation zone: 16th of 16
- Fewest yellow cards in the league — 2.2 per match16 teams in the league
Nacional- 3 clean sheets in the last 50:1, 3:2, 1:0, 2:0, 2:0
- Unbeaten away in 4 matches1:0, 2:0, 1:1, 1:0, 0:2
- Most corners in the league in their matches — 10.1 per match16 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Danubio
- awayMaldonado1:2
- homeCentral Espanol1:0
- awayMontevideo City0:1
- homeCerro Largo2:1
- awayDefensor Sporting0:1
Nacional
- homeLiverpool Montevideo0:1
- homeMaldonado3:2
- awayCentral Espanol1:0
- homeMontevideo City2:0
- awayCerro Largo2:0
Head to head
- 07/11/26Primera División0:0
- 04/25/26Primera División2:1
- 10/12/25Primera División0:0
- 06/29/25Primera División2:3
- 04/13/25Primera División0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Maldonado34188854:3262
Maldonado34188854:32623
Montevideo City341861057:4060
Montevideo City341861057:40604
Nacional341841251:4158
Nacional341841251:41585
Racing Montevideo341512742:3057
Racing Montevideo341512742:30576
Liverpool Montevideo341511845:3156
Liverpool Montevideo341511845:31567
Montevideo Wanderers351481342:4850
Montevideo Wanderers351481342:48508
Albion341371447:4446
Albion341371447:44469
Juventud3410111337:4141
Juventud3410111337:414110
Central Espanol341081633:4738
Central Espanol341081633:473811
Cerro Largo349101532:3837
Cerro Largo349101532:383712
Boston River341071733:4537
Boston River341071733:453713
Cerro341071728:5137
Cerro341071728:513714
Defensor Sporting348121433:4336
Defensor Sporting348121433:433615
Progreso341051931:4735
Progreso341051931:473516
Danubio346141428:4332
Danubio346141428:4332Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.