Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.69book 1.80
No41%
ours 2.44book 1.89
All matches
Progreso — Defensor Sporting, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Progreso
1.5WWDLW
Defensor Sporting
1.7DLLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%27%36%
ProgresoMarket 2.4738%DrawMarket 3.0827%Defensor SportingMarket 2.5836%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Progreso2.662.47+1.3
XDraw3.763.08-2.5
2Defensor Sporting2.792.58+1.2
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3520 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3509 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3486 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
ProgresoDefensor Sporting
Club Atlético Progreso 38%, Defensor Sporting Club 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Club Atlético Progreso 38%Draw 27%Defensor Sporting Club 36%
1st half
31 · 39 · 29
2nd half
35 · 33 · 32
Bookmakers: 2.47 · 3.08 · 2.58
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
71%1.41
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricProgresoDefensor SportingCombined
Goals scored1.601.603.20
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Progreso- Relegation zone: 15th of 16
- Fewest shots in the league — 8.7 per match16 teams in the league
Defensor Sporting- Winless away in 6 matches0:1, 2:3, 2:3, 1:1, 1:1
- Relegation zone: 14th of 16
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches10 goals conceded
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Progreso
- awayMontevideo Wanderers1:0
- homeJuventud2:0
- awayPenarol1:1
- awayLiverpool Montevideo2:3
- homeRacing Montevideo2:1
Defensor Sporting
- homeRacing Montevideo3:3
- awayBoston River0:1
- homeCerro2:3
- awayAlbion2:3
- homeDanubio1:0
Head to head
- 04/27/26Primera División0:1
- 10/19/25Primera División2:3
- 04/20/25Primera División2:1
- 11/14/24Primera División0:3
- 06/15/24Primera División1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12
Boston River341071733:4537
Boston River341071733:453713
Cerro341071728:5137
Cerro341071728:513714
Defensor Sporting348121433:4336
Defensor Sporting348121433:433615
Progreso341051931:4735
Progreso341051931:473516
Danubio346141428:4332
Danubio346141428:4332Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.