Chicago Fire — Orlando City SC, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 29 at 12:30 AM

Chicago Fire

1.9WLLDD

—

Orlando City SC

2.1LLWWW

Outcome probability

512326

Chicago Fire51%Draw23%Orlando City SC26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Chicago Fire51%1.97—

XDraw23%4.27—

2Orlando City SC26%3.88—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes72%

ours 1.39

No28%

ours 3.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricChicago FireOrlando City SCCombined

Goals scored0.170.670.84

Conceded0.001.331.33

Corners10.013.511.8

Cards2.02.04.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Chicago FireOrlando City SC
10Table position16
3Matches in 14 days2
59.00%Possession56.50%
4Days of rest4
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Chicago Fire look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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