All matches

Chicago Fire — Vancouver Whitecaps FC, MLS

USA, MLS

Chicago Fire
1.9WLLDD
—
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
2.7DWLWL
Outcome probability
342541
Chicago Fire34%Draw25%Vancouver Whitecaps FC41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Chicago Fire34%34%2.962.92-0.5
XDraw25%25%3.933.96+0.2
2Vancouver Whitecaps FC41%44%2.452.29-2.8

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes65%

ours 1.53book 1.39

No35%

ours 2.90book 2.77

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricChicago FireVancouver Whitecaps FCCombined
Goals scored1.502.333.83
Conceded2.001.333.33
Corners9.510.29.8
Cards1.52.33.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Chicago FireVancouver Whitecaps FC
    10Table position2
    53.50%Possession54.80%
    10Days of rest9.9
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Vancouver Whitecaps FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 41%. Bookmakers price this at 2.29.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Chicago Fire

  • awayCharlotte FC1:0
  • awayNashville SC MLS0:3
  • homeNew England Revolution1:2
  • homeClub Internacional de Fútbol Miami1:1
  • awayToronto FC4:4

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

  • homeDC United3:3
  • awayReal Salt Lake3:0
  • homeAustin FC1:2
  • homeLA Galaxy3:0
  • homeSt. Louis City SC1:3

Head to head

  • 03/23/25MLS3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Nashville SC MLS27186355:2160
2Vancouver Whitecaps FC26155659:2650
3FC Dallas27138650:4247
4Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami271210564:5046
5New England Revolution27144945:3646
6San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
7St. Louis City SC26128645:3644
8Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
9Charlotte FC27127847:3843
10Chicago Fire26126846:3842
11Los Angeles FC28118943:3041
12Philadelphia Union271161054:4439

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.