Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No40%
ours 2.48
All matches
—
Orlando City — New York City, MLS
USA, MLS
Orlando City
2.1LLWWW
New York City
2.1DLWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%25%30%
Orlando City45%Draw25%New York City30%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Orlando City2.24—
XDraw4.02—
2New York City3.29—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricOrlando CityNew York CityCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded1.330.501.83
Corners11.310.310.8
Cards2.31.74.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Orlando CityNew York City
Orlando City SC 45%, New York City FC 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Orlando City SC 45%Draw 25%New York City FC 30%
1st half
34 · 36 · 30
2nd half
36 · 38 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Orlando City
- awayPhiladelphia Union2:4
- awayNew England Revolution2:4
- homeToronto3:0
- awayAtlanta United3:2
- homeSan Diego1:0
New York City
- awayAtlanta United2:2
- homeNew York Red Bulls0:1
- awayReal Salt Lake2:0
- homeNew England Revolution1:2
- homeNashville SC0:0
Head to head
- 03/07/26MLS0:5
- 07/17/25MLS1:2
- 03/09/25MLS1:2
- 07/20/24MLS1:1
- 06/28/24MLS2:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.