Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.61
No38%
ours 2.64
All matches
—
Toronto — Orlando City, MLS
USA, MLS
Toronto
1.3LLLWD
Orlando City
2.1LLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%25%34%
Toronto42%Draw25%Orlando City34%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Toronto2.38—
XDraw4.08—
2Orlando City2.98—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricTorontoOrlando CityCombined
Goals scored1.171.833.00
Conceded2.171.673.84
Corners10.210.810.5
Cards1.42.43.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
TorontoOrlando City
Toronto FC 42%, Orlando City SC 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Toronto FC 42%Draw 25%Orlando City SC 34%
1st half
35 · 38 · 26
2nd half
34 · 35 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Toronto
- awayNashville SC0:2
- awaySt. Louis City1:3
- awayOrlando City0:3
- homeNashville SC2:1
- homeChicago Fire4:4
Orlando City
- awayPhiladelphia Union2:4
- awayNew England Revolution2:4
- homeToronto3:0
- awayAtlanta United3:2
- homeSan Diego1:0
Head to head
- 09/12/26MLS0:3
- 10/18/25MLS4:2
- 03/02/25MLS2:4
- 07/03/24MLS1:2
- 04/27/24MLS2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417
New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:513320
San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:473221
Portland Timbers27951348:5132
Portland Timbers27951348:513222
Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
Real Salt Lake27951340:443223
Austin277101035:4731
Austin277101035:473124
DC United26612834:4230
DC United26612834:423025
Columbus Crew27851439:4329
Columbus Crew27851439:432926
Minnesota United27781240:4929
Minnesota United27781240:492927Toronto276111039:5129
Toronto276111039:512928
Atlanta United27761432:4527
Atlanta United27761432:452729
Montreal Impact27661534:5424
Montreal Impact27661534:5424Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.