All matches

Chicago Fire — Philadelphia Union, MLS

USA, MLS

Chicago Fire
1.9WLLDD
—
Philadelphia Union
2.2WWWWW
Outcome probability
382536
Chicago Fire38%Draw25%Philadelphia Union36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Chicago Fire38%2.61—
XDraw25%3.92—
2Philadelphia Union36%2.77—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.49

No33%

ours 3.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricChicago FirePhiladelphia UnionCombined
Goals scored0.503.333.83
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners9.310.29.7
Cards1.82.44.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Chicago FirePhiladelphia Union
    2Matches in 14 days1
    10Table position12
    4.3Days of rest4
    52.00%Possession49.60%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Chicago Fire look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 3.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Chicago Fire

  • awayCharlotte FC1:0
  • awayNashville SC MLS0:3
  • homeNew England Revolution1:2
  • homeClub Internacional de Fútbol Miami1:1
  • awayToronto FC4:4

Philadelphia Union

  • homeOrlando City SC4:2
  • awaySporting Kansas City4:3
  • awaySan Diego FC5:0
  • homeFC Cincinnati5:0
  • homeMontreal Impact2:0

Head to head

  • 03/21/26MLS2:1
  • 11/01/25MLS0:3
  • 10/26/25MLS2:2
  • 08/23/25MLS0:4
  • 06/26/25MLS0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
9Charlotte FC27127847:3843
10Chicago Fire26126846:3842
11Los Angeles FC28118943:3041
12Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
13Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
14LA Galaxy28991037:4436

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.