All matches

Huachipato — La Serena, Primera División

Chile, Primera División

Huachipato
1.7WDLLL
—
La Serena
1.6LWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
46%22%32%
Huachipato46%Draw22%La Serena32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Huachipato46%2.19—
XDraw22%4.52—
2La Serena32%3.11—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.47

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricHuachipatoLa SerenaCombined
Goals scored0.501.001.50
Conceded0.501.171.67
Corners10.710.810.7
Cards1.72.54.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

HuachipatoLa Serena

CD Huachipato 46%, CD La Serena 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.

CD Huachipato 46%Draw 22%CD La Serena 32%
1st half
32 · 37 · 31
2nd half
37 · 35 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Huachipato

  • awayUniversidad de Concepcion2:0
  • homeColo-Colo0:0
  • homeDeportes Limache1:3
  • awayPalestino1:5
  • homeEverton Vina del Mar1:4

La Serena

  • homeUniversidad de Chile0:3
  • homeNublense2:1
  • awayUnion La Calera1:0
  • homeCobresal3:3
  • awayUniversidad de Concepcion2:0

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Primera División0:0
  • 08/24/25Primera División2:0
  • 03/30/25Primera División3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Nublense2388728:3132
8Concepcion23941025:2631
9La Serena2379734:3830
10Coquimbo Unido2285931:3129
11Audax Italiano2377926:3128
12Huachipato22841031:3928
13O'Higgins23831228:3627
14Union La Calera23651223:3523

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.