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Boston River 1:2 Progreso, Primera División: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Uruguay, Primera DivisiónMatch finished

1.8LLWWD
1:2HT 0:1
1.5LWWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
57%24%19%
Boston RiverPrice 1.8657%DrawPrice 3.2224%ProgresoPrice 3.8819%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.00xG1.36
53Possession, %47
7Shots9
1Shots on target5
6Corners5
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Offsides4

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

0 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 70 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Boston River57%

    Actual: Progreso — we had 19%

  • Total goals Missed
    Under 2.555%

    Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 45%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    No55%

    Actual: Yes — we had 45%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Boston River57%50%1.761.86+6.5
XDraw24%27%4.163.22-3.4
2Progreso19%22%5.203.88-3.1

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Boston River

  • homeMontevideo City1:2
  • awayCerro Largo0:2
  • homeDefensor Sporting1:0
  • awayMontevideo Wanderers3:1
  • homeJuventud0:0

Progreso

  • homeDefensor Sporting0:2
  • awayMontevideo Wanderers1:0
  • homeJuventud2:0
  • awayPenarol1:1
  • awayLiverpool Montevideo2:3

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Primera División1:2
  • 03/22/26Primera División1:0
  • 08/31/25Primera División2:1
  • 06/19/25Primera División0:2
  • 03/09/25Primera División2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Defensor Sporting359121435:4339
12Cerro Largo359101633:4137
13Boston River351071834:4737
14Cerro351071829:5337
15Progreso351052031:4935
16Danubio346141428:4332

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.