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Omonia 29 Maiou 1:2 AEK Larnaca, First Division: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Cyprus, First DivisionMatch finished

1:2HT 1:1
3.1DWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
14%79%
Omonia 29 MaiouPrice 7.188%DrawPrice 4.3314%AEK LarnacaPrice 1.4179%
Line-upsOmonia 29 Maiou3-4-3—AEK Larnaca4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Omonia 29 Maiou3-4-3AEK Larnaca4-2-3-1

Omonia 29 Maiou3-4-3

Coach: Fangio Buyse

Starting XI

  • 98GKNigeriaFrancis Uzoho
  • 14DFCyprusHenry Bates Andreou
  • 19DFMexicoJuan Portales
  • 30DFCroatiaMatej Senić
  • 8MFCharalambos Aristotelous
  • 16MFCyprusKonstantinos Pattichis
  • 44DFGreeceDimitris Chantakias
  • 20MFCyprusSotiris Fiakas
  • 17MFPanagiotis Zachariou
  • 10MFMike Morais
  • 11FWMalaysiaFergus Tierney

Substitutes

  • 43GKCyprusAntonis Mavrantonis
  • 1GKNikolaos Grammatikakis
  • 15DFCyprusStelios Panteli
  • 4DFCyprusAlexandros Kaiafas
  • 24DFAngelos Vyntra
  • 46DFModestos Sotiriou
  • 6MFRushit Zeka
  • 5MFGreeceStavros Tsoukalas
  • 77MFPortugalLuís Santos
  • 26FWMarios Antoniou
  • 21FWGeorgios Sokos

AEK Larnaca4-2-3-1

Coach: Ruben Selles

Starting XI

  • 92GKItalyAlberto Paleari
  • 21MFSpainJorge Miramón
  • 15DFBosnia and HerzegovinaHrvoje Miličević
  • 3DFNetherlandsMike Van der Hoorn
  • 17DFCyprusKostas Pileas
  • 23DFGermanySven Köhler
  • 7MFPortugalGus Ledes
  • 14MFTunisiaAmor Layouni
  • 28FWSwedenKerim Mrabti
  • 10MFVenezuelaYerson Chacón
  • 33FWArgentinaNicolas Andereggen

Substitutes

  • 51GKCyprusAndreas Paraskevas
  • 5DFSpainBrian Oliván
  • 22DFNigeriaGodswill Ekpolo
  • 44DFCyprusZacharias Adoni
  • 2DFCyprusPetros Ioannou
  • 20MFSloveniaJan Repas
  • 6MFIvan Chavdarov Pankov
  • 29MFCyprusGiorgos Naoum
  • 9MFSerbiaĐorđe Ivanović
  • 25MFCyprusChambos Kyriakou
  • 11FWBosnia and HerzegovinaRiad Bajić
  • 19FWRomaniaAtanas Trică

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.17xG2.61
35Possession, %65
7Shots18
5Shots on target12
3Corners6
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
12Fouls12
1Offsides4

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 83 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Landed
    AEK Larnaca79%
  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.564%
  • Both teams to score Missed
    No54%

    Actual: Yes — we had 46%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Omonia 29 Maiou8%11%13.047.18-3.8
XDraw14%20%7.264.33-6.2
2AEK Larnaca79%69%1.271.41+10.0

Big gap with the price. The price usually reflects something the model doesn’t know: a new team in the league, few matches, line-ups. Not a tip.

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Omonia 29 Maiou

  • homeNea Salamis Famagusta1:0
  • awayAPOEL1:4
  • homeAnorthosis Famagusta1:0
  • awayAEL Limassol1:2
  • homeAEK Larnaca1:2

AEK Larnaca

  • awayKrasava Ypsonas2:2
  • homeOmonia2:0
  • awayAris Limassol1:1
  • homeOmonia Aradippou1:0
  • awayOmonia 29 Maiou2:1

Head to head

  • 09/18/26First Division1:2
  • 03/02/25First Division0:2
  • 12/01/24First Division1:5

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AEK Larnaca852115:717
2Apollon Limassol844021:1016
3Omonia843115:615
4Aris Limassol843112:1015
5AEL Limassol850311:1315
6APOEL842218:1014
7Paphos83419:513
8Omonia 29 Maiou832313:1311
10Omonia Aradippou81345:106

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.