AFC Botoşani — ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 24 at 12:00 AM

AFC Botoşani

1.6LDWDW

—

ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti

1.8WDWWL

Outcome probability

423028

AFC Botoşani42%Draw30%ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1AFC Botoşani42%2.36—

XDraw30%3.32—

2ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti28%3.63—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.32

No57%

ours 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAFC BotoşaniACS Petrolul 52 PloieştiCombined

Goals scored1.171.502.67

Conceded0.670.671.34

Corners7.510.08.8

Cards2.52.34.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
AFC BotoşaniACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti
12Table position4
54.30%Possession39.00%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour AFC Botoşani: a home win is rated at 42%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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