SSC Farul Constanţa — ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 11 at 06:00 PM

SSC Farul Constanţa

1.6LWDDD

—

ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti

1.8WDWWL

Outcome probability

453026

SSC Farul Constanţa45%Draw30%ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SSC Farul Constanţa45%2.25—

XDraw30%3.34—

2ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti26%3.92—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes40%

ours 2.49

No60%

ours 1.67

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSSC Farul ConstanţaACS Petrolul 52 PloieştiCombined

Goals scored1.001.832.83

Conceded1.331.172.50

Corners9.59.29.3

Cards1.22.23.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SSC Farul ConstanţaACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti
6Table position4
50.50%Possession42.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SSC Farul Constanţa: a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context