All matches

AFC Botoşani — AFC UTA Arad, Liga I

Romania, Liga I

AFC Botoşani
1.6LDWDW
—
AFC UTA Arad
2.0WLWWD
Outcome probability
383032
AFC Botoşani38%Draw30%AFC UTA Arad32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AFC Botoşani38%2.62—
XDraw30%3.31—
2AFC UTA Arad32%3.16—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.08

No52%

ours 1.92

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAFC BotoşaniAFC UTA AradCombined
Goals scored1.672.003.67
Conceded1.171.332.50
Corners9.89.59.7
Cards2.72.04.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AFC BotoşaniAFC UTA Arad
    12Table position10
    54.70%Possession49.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour AFC Botoşani: a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AFC Botoşani

  • awaySCS CFR 1907 Cluj1:3
  • awayFC Argeș Pitești1:1
  • homeSepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe5:0
  • awaySSC Farul Constanţa0:0
  • homeAFK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc1:0

AFC UTA Arad

  • homeSepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe1:0
  • awaySSC Farul Constanţa2:4
  • homeAFK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc5:1
  • awaySC Fotbal Club FCSB SA3:1
  • homeFC Corvinul Hunedoara0:0

Head to head

  • 04/11/26Liga I1:3
  • 02/15/26Liga I1:2
  • 10/06/25Liga I2:1
  • 04/05/25Liga I0:1
  • 12/23/24Liga I0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8SCS CFR 1907 Cluj941415:1413
9Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe103437:1013
10AFC UTA Arad1033414:1512
11SC Fotbal Club FCSB SA1033413:1712
12AFC Botoşani1025314:1211
13FC Argeș Pitești103256:1011
14FC Oţelul Galaţi1024411:1510

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.