FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti — AFC Botoşani, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 17 at 12:00 AM

FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti

2.7WWWDW

—

AFC Botoşani

1.6LDWDW

Outcome probability

6821

FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti68%Draw21%AFC Botoşani12%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti68%1.48—

XDraw21%4.85—

2AFC Botoşani12%8.50—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.27

No56%

ours 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Dinamo 1948 BucureştiAFC BotoşaniCombined

Goals scored2.001.333.33

Conceded0.670.671.34

Corners9.48.28.8

Cards3.02.65.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Dinamo 1948 BucureştiAFC Botoşani
1Table position12
7.3Days of rest6.4
55.40%Possession57.60%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 68%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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