ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti — Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 17 at 12:00 AM

ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti

1.8WDWWL

—

Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe

1.7LWLWD

Outcome probability

473024

ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti47%Draw30%Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti47%2.15—

XDraw30%3.35—

2Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe24%4.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.72

No63%

ours 1.58

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricACS Petrolul 52 PloieştiSepsi OSK Sfântu GheorgheCombined

Goals scored1.500.832.33

Conceded1.001.332.33

Corners9.811.210.5

Cards1.81.43.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
ACS Petrolul 52 PloieştiSepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe
4Table position9
5.3Days of rest7.3
42.20%Possession50.60%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
ACS Petrolul 52 Ploieşti look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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