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Kaiserslautern — Dynamo Dresden, 2. Bundesliga: match prediction and stats

Match prediction and stats

Germany, 2. Bundesliga

  
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
52%24%24%
Kaiserslautern52%Draw24%Dynamo Dresden24%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Kaiserslautern52%1.93—
XDraw24%4.13—
2Dynamo Dresden24%4.16—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.

Both teams to score

Yes65%

ours 1.54

No35%

ours 2.84

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches

Cards prediction

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

KaiserslauternDynamo Dresden

1. FC Kaiserslautern 52%, SG Dynamo Dresden 24%. The safest is “1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw” at 76%.

1. FC Kaiserslautern 52%Draw 24%SG Dynamo Dresden 24%
1st half
33 · 38 · 29
2nd half
51 · 29 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total shots on target: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with Premium

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKaiserslauternDynamo DresdenCombined
Goals scored0.801.202.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other nine metrics — with Premium

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Kaiserslautern
  • 4 clean sheets in the last 50:3, 1:0, 2:0, 0:0, 1:0
  • Best defence in the league — 7 conceded in 10 matches4th place, 18 points
  • 2 goals or fewer in 4 of the last 5
Dynamo Dresden
  • Winless away in 7 matches0:3, 1:1, 2:2, 3:5, 0:3
  • Relegation zone: 16th of 18
  • Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Kaiserslautern

  • homeHertha Berlin0:3
  • awayNurnberg1:0
  • homeVfL Bochum2:0
  • awayHeidenheim0:0
  • homeEintracht Braunschweig1:0

Dynamo Dresden

  • awayHolstein Kiel0:3
  • homeMagdeburg2:0
  • awayOsnabruck1:1
  • homeHertha Berlin1:2
  • awayEintracht Braunschweig2:2

Head to head

  • 05/02/262. Bundesliga0:1
  • 12/06/252. Bundesliga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Wolfsburg1054125:1419
3Nurnberg953121:1218
4Kaiserslautern105329:718
5Magdeburg1052321:1317
6Heidenheim943216:1615
7Arminia Bielefeld1042416:1514
8St. Pauli926111:912
9Osnabruck1032514:1711
10VfL Bochum103258:1111
11Energie Cottbus1024418:2010
13Greuther Furth923412:169
14Darmstadt 98102359:199
15Holstein Kiel915310:118
16Dynamo Dresden922511:188
17Hannover 9692258:158
18Karlsruher SC922511:208

Full breakdown

Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.