Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.78
No44%
ours 2.29
All matches
—
St. Pauli — Nurnberg, 2. Bundesliga
Germany, 2. Bundesliga
St. Pauli
0.9DWDLD
Nurnberg
2.2WWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%26%32%
St. Pauli42%Draw26%Nurnberg32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1St. Pauli2.37—
XDraw3.91—
2Nurnberg3.11—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSt. PauliNurnbergCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners11.311.311.3
Cards2.72.35.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
St. PauliNurnberg
FC St. Pauli 42%, 1. FC Nürnberg 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FC St. Pauli 42%Draw 26%1. FC Nürnberg 32%
1st half
32 · 40 · 28
2nd half
37 · 38 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
St. Pauli
- awayEnergie Cottbus1:1
- homeWolfsburg1:0
- awayArminia Bielefeld2:2
- homeKaiserslautern1:2
- awayHolstein Kiel2:2
Nurnberg
- awayKarlsruher SC1:0
- homeHannover 962:1
- awayHolstein Kiel2:2
- homeArminia Bielefeld4:1
- awayGreuther Furth4:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Hertha Berlin660017:718
Hertha Berlin660017:7182Nurnberg651016:616
Nurnberg651016:6163
Heidenheim641114:1213
Heidenheim641114:12134
Wolfsburg632115:811
Wolfsburg632115:8115
Kaiserslautern63216:411
Kaiserslautern63216:4116
Magdeburg631211:910
Magdeburg631211:9107
Energie Cottbus622214:138
Energie Cottbus622214:1388St. Pauli61418:87
St. Pauli61418:879
VfL Bochum62135:67
VfL Bochum62135:6710
Hannover 9662137:97
Hannover 9662137:97Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.