All matches

Vitória Guimarães SC — CS Marítimo Funchal, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOS

Vitória Guimarães SC
2.0DLDLW
—
CS Marítimo Funchal
2.3DLLLD
Outcome probability
383131
Vitória Guimarães SC38%Draw31%CS Marítimo Funchal31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Vitória Guimarães SC38%2.60—
XDraw31%3.25—
2CS Marítimo Funchal31%3.25—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.16

No54%

ours 1.86

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVitória Guimarães SCCS Marítimo FunchalCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded0.671.832.50
Corners9.47.48.4
Cards2.01.83.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Vitória Guimarães SCCS Marítimo Funchal
    14Table position11
    57.60%Possession48.60%
    12.1Days of rest13.1
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Vitória Guimarães SC: a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Vitória Guimarães SC

  • homeMoreirense FC1:1
  • awayAcademico de Viseu FC1:2
  • homeCasa Pia AC0:0
  • awaySporting Braga0:1
  • homeCD Nacional Funchal1:0

CS Marítimo Funchal

  • awayGil Vicente FC1:1
  • awayMoreirense FC1:3
  • homeSL Benfica0:3
  • awayFC Arouca1:2
  • homeAcademico de Viseu FC2:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Gil Vicente FC62225:58
10Alverca72239:118
11CS Marítimo Funchal72238:128
12Moreirense FC72238:148
13FC Famalicão71429:77
14Vitória Guimarães SC71245:85
15CD Nacional Funchal71157:154
16Rio Ave FC71155:154

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.