CS Marítimo Funchal — FC Porto, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 10 at 05:00 PM

CS Marítimo Funchal

2.3DLLLD

—

FC Porto

4.0WWLWW

Outcome probability

1676

CS Marítimo Funchal8%Draw16%FC Porto76%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CS Marítimo Funchal8%13.18—

XDraw16%6.17—

2FC Porto76%1.31—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.57

No61%

ours 1.64

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCS Marítimo FunchalFC PortoCombined

Goals scored1.172.333.50

Conceded2.000.832.83

Corners7.29.08.1

Cards1.81.23.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CS Marítimo FunchalFC Porto
11Table position1
46.00%Possession51.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Porto travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 76%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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