Västerås SK Fotboll — Mjällby AIF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, AllsvenskanOctober 18 at 12:00 PM

Västerås SK Fotboll

1.5WWLWD

—

Mjällby AIF

2.5LDLLL

Outcome probability

362539

Västerås SK Fotboll36%Draw25%Mjällby AIF39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Västerås SK Fotboll36%2.77—

XDraw25%4.07—

2Mjällby AIF39%2.54—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVästerås SK FotbollMjällby AIFCombined

Goals scored1.500.331.83

Conceded0.501.331.83

Corners8.611.09.8

Cards1.42.74.1

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Västerås SK FotbollMjällby AIF
8.8Days of rest2.8
6Table position12
1Matches in 14 days2
54.80%Possession48.40%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Mjällby AIF travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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