Both teams to score
Yes65%
ours 1.55
No35%
ours 2.82
All matches
—
Vasas — Paks, NB I
Hungary, NB I
Vasas
2.0WWLLW
Paks
2.4WLDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%25%30%
Vasas45%Draw25%Paks30%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Vasas2.22—
XDraw3.97—
2Paks3.37—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricVasasPaksCombined
Goals scored1.331.002.33
Conceded1.330.832.16
Corners9.813.011.4
Cards2.32.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
VasasPaks
Vasas SC 45%, Paksi FC 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Vasas SC 45%Draw 25%Paksi FC 30%
1st half
35 · 38 · 27
2nd half
40 · 33 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 2.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Vasas
- awayDebrecen4:2
- homeNyiregyhaza Spartacus3:2
- awayUjpest1:3
- homePuskas Akademia0:1
- awayKispest-Honved2:1
Paks
- awayKisvarda1:0
- homeDebrecen2:4
- awayNyiregyhaza Spartacus1:1
- homeUjpest2:0
- awayPuskas Akademia2:3
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
ETO Gyor843116:1015
ETO Gyor843116:10152
Puskas Akademia850313:1015
Puskas Akademia850313:10153Vasas842217:1114
Vasas842217:11144
Ujpest842217:1314
Ujpest842217:13145
Ferencvaros733111:812
Ferencvaros733111:8126Paks832316:1711
Paks832316:17117
MTK Budapest823315:149
MTK Budapest823315:1498
Kisvarda82339:109
Kisvarda82339:109Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.