All matches

Vasas SC — Kisvárda Master Good SE, NB I

Hungary, NB I

Vasas SC
2.0WWLLW
—
Kisvárda Master Good SE
1.6LWDDL
Outcome probability
562518
Vasas SC56%Draw25%Kisvárda Master Good SE18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Vasas SC56%1.78—
XDraw25%3.94—
2Kisvárda Master Good SE18%5.44—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.13

No53%

ours 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVasas SCKisvárda Master Good SECombined
Goals scored2.501.003.50
Conceded1.501.503.00
Corners9.711.510.6
Cards2.21.73.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Vasas SCKisvárda Master Good SE
    3Table position8
    53.30%Possession46.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Vasas SC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 56%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

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Form and context

Vasas SC

  • awayDebreceni VSC4:2
  • homeNyíregyháza Spartacus FC3:2
  • awayÚjpest FC1:3
  • homePuskás Ferenc Akadémia FC0:1
  • awayKispest-Honvéd FC2:1

Kisvárda Master Good SE

  • homePaksi FC0:1
  • awayMTK Budapest FC2:1
  • homeETO FC1:1
  • homeDebreceni VSC0:0
  • awayNyíregyháza Spartacus FC1:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1ETO FC843116:1015
2Puskás Ferenc Akadémia FC850313:1015
3Vasas SC842217:1114
4Újpest FC842217:1314
5Ferencvárosi TC733111:812
6Paksi FC832316:1711
7MTK Budapest FC823315:149
8Kisvárda Master Good SE82339:109
9Debreceni VSC823312:159
10Nyíregyháza Spartacus FC82249:148

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.