Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.96
No49%
ours 2.04
All matches
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US Monastir — AS Marsa, Ligue 1
Tunisia, Ligue 1
US Monastir
WDWDW
AS Marsa
WLDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
67%21%12%
US Monastir67%Draw21%AS Marsa12%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1US Monastir1.50—
XDraw4.68—
2AS Marsa8.45—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos
Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.
Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Sign upConfident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 907 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 906 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 903 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
US MonastirAS Marsa
US Monastirienne 67%, AS de La Marsa 12%. The safest is “US Monastirienne or draw” at 86%.
US Monastirienne 67%Draw 21%AS de La Marsa 12%
1st half
48 · 34 · 18
2nd half
47 · 41 · 12
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricUS MonastirAS MarsaCombined
Goals scored0.330.170.50
Conceded0.170.000.17
Corners9.09.09.0
Cards5.00.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Form and context
US Monastir
- awayES Zarzis2:1
- homeUS Ben Guerdane3:3
- homeStade Tunisien2:1
- awayES Hammam-Sousse0:0
- homeAS Slimane3:0
AS Marsa
- homeEtoile du Sahel1:0
- awayEsperance de Tunis1:2
- homePS Sakiet Eddaier0:0
- awayCA Bizertin0:1
- awayJS Omrane2:2
Head to head
- 02/01/26Ligue 11:0
- 08/27/25Ligue 10:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4
PS Sakiet Eddaier42204:18
PS Sakiet Eddaier42204:185
US Ben Guerdane42207:58
US Ben Guerdane42207:586US Monastir42207:58
US Monastir42207:587
JS Omrane42115:47
JS Omrane42115:478
CA Bizertin42113:37
CA Bizertin42113:379
Stade Tunisien31115:44
Stade Tunisien31115:4410
Etoile du Sahel41125:64
Etoile du Sahel41125:6411AS Marsa41122:34
AS Marsa41122:3412
ES Zarzis41033:53
ES Zarzis41033:5313
ES Metlaoui41032:43
ES Metlaoui41032:43Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.