AS Marsa — ES Metlaoui, Ligue 1

Tunisia, Ligue 1October 18 at 01:30 PM

AS Marsa

1.7DWLDL

ES Metlaoui

1.8LLWLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

43%32%25%

AS Marsa43%Draw32%ES Metlaoui25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1AS Marsa43%2.31—

XDraw32%3.14—

2ES Metlaoui25%4.01—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.20

No54%

ours 1.84

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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69%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1804 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1802 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1794 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AS MarsaES Metlaoui

AS de La Marsa 43%, Étoile Sportive de Métlaoui 25%. The safest is “AS de La Marsa or draw” at 75%.

AS de La Marsa 43%Draw 32%Étoile Sportive de Métlaoui 25%

1st half

34 · 51 · 15

2nd half

30 · 49 · 21

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total shots on target: Under 9.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAS MarsaES MetlaouiCombined

Goals scored0.330.500.83

Conceded0.501.001.50

Corners10.48.29.3

Cards0.60.41.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.