Switzerland — FYR Macedonia, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations LeagueOctober 6 at 06:45 PM

Switzerland

2.0WWLDW

—

FYR Macedonia

2.1LLLLD

Outcome probability

502921

Switzerland50%Draw29%FYR Macedonia21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Switzerland50%1.99—

XDraw29%3.49—

2FYR Macedonia21%4.74—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes32%

ours 3.09

No68%

ours 1.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSwitzerlandFYR MacedoniaCombined

Goals scored1.000.331.33

Conceded0.502.503.00

Corners7.89.88.8

Cards1.02.53.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SwitzerlandFYR Macedonia
1Table position53
49.50%Possession40.80%
3Days of rest3
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Switzerland: a home win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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