All matches

OGC Nice Côte d'Azur — RC Strasbourg Alsace, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

OGC Nice Côte d'Azur
1.3WLDLD
—
RC Strasbourg Alsace
2.6LDWWL
Outcome probability
302545
OGC Nice Côte d'Azur30%Draw25%RC Strasbourg Alsace45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1OGC Nice Côte d'Azur30%3.32—
XDraw25%4.03—
2RC Strasbourg Alsace45%2.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.66

No40%

ours 2.52

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOGC Nice Côte d'AzurRC Strasbourg AlsaceCombined
Goals scored0.502.503.00
Conceded1.002.333.33
Corners10.08.29.1
Cards1.71.53.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    OGC Nice Côte d'AzurRC Strasbourg Alsace
    14Table position8
    55.70%Possession45.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, RC Strasbourg Alsace still look stronger — an away win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

OGC Nice Côte d'Azur

  • homeLille OSC Métropole2:1
  • awayAssociation Jeunesse Auxerroise0:1
  • homeLe Mans FC1:1
  • awayParis FC0:3
  • homeFC Lorient0:0

RC Strasbourg Alsace

  • awayParis FC1:2
  • homeAS Monaco FC1:1
  • awayEspérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne6:2
  • homeRacing Club de Lens2:1
  • awayOlympique de Marseille0:4

Head to head

  • 04/04/26Ligue 11:3
  • 01/03/26Ligue 11:1
  • 04/12/25Ligue 12:2
  • 11/24/24Ligue 12:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Paris Saint-Germain FC52218:78
7Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest52126:57
8RC Strasbourg Alsace521210:107
9Le Mans FC51319:96
10Association Jeunesse Auxerroise52037:126
11Stade Brestois 2951227:85
12FC Lorient51225:65
13Toulouse FC51227:95
14OGC Nice Côte d'Azur51223:65
15Racing Club de Lens51139:94
16Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne51134:114

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.