All matches

Torreense — Sunderland, UEFA Europa League

Europe, UEFA Europa League

Torreense
2.4WDWLD
—
Sunderland
2.4LWLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
24%25%51%
Torreense24%Draw25%Sunderland51%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Torreense24%4.17—
XDraw25%3.93—
2Sunderland51%1.98—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTorreenseSunderlandCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners10.09.69.8
Cards1.82.24.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

TorreenseSunderland

SC União Torreense 24%, Sunderland AFC 51%. The safest is “Sunderland AFC or draw” at 76%.

SC União Torreense 24%Draw 25%Sunderland AFC 51%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Torreense

  • awayLillestrom2:1
  • homeLeixoes0:0
  • awayBenfica II2:0
  • homeVizela0:3
  • awayLusitania Lourosa2:2

Sunderland

  • awayManchester City3:5
  • homeAZ Alkmaar1:0
  • homeArsenal0:2
  • awayBrentford1:1
  • homeFulham1:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
30Lyon11002:13
31Olympiakos11002:13
32Torreense11002:13
33Sunderland11001:03
34Red Star Belgrade21014:53
35Sint-Truiden21013:43

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.