All matches

Sunderland AFC — Brighton & Hove Albion FC, Premier League

England, Premier League

Sunderland AFC
2.4LWLDW
—
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
2.6WWDLW
Outcome probability
272845
Sunderland AFC27%Draw28%Brighton & Hove Albion FC45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sunderland AFC27%3.73—
XDraw28%3.54—
2Brighton & Hove Albion FC45%2.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSunderland AFCBrighton & Hove Albion FCCombined
Goals scored1.173.334.50
Conceded1.670.832.50
Corners9.39.59.4
Cards2.32.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Sunderland AFCBrighton & Hove Albion FC
    14Table position3
    47.80%Possession66.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Brighton & Hove Albion FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sunderland AFC

  • awayManchester City FC3:5
  • homeAlkmaar Zaanstreek1:0
  • homeArsenal FC0:2
  • awayBrentford FC1:1
  • homeFulham FC1:0

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

  • homeArsenal FC3:0
  • awayCoventry City FC5:0
  • homeLeeds United FC1:1
  • awayChelsea FC3:4
  • homeTromsø IL4:0

Head to head

  • 03/14/26Premier League0:1
  • 12/20/25Premier League0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Manchester City FC550013:515
2Arsenal FC54018:412
3Brighton & Hove Albion FC531116:510
4Brentford FC523010:49
5Leeds United FC52307:39
6Liverpool FC52307:49
7Everton FC52306:39
8Hull City AFC52216:48
9Newcastle United FC52219:98
10Chelsea FC521210:127
11Ipswich Town FC52037:116
12Manchester United FC51228:85
13Nottingham Forest FC51224:55
14Sunderland AFC51136:104
15Crystal Palace FC51136:114
16Aston Villa FC51134:94

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.