Tondela — Torreense, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaProOctober 10 at 10:00 AM

Tondela

1.8WWLLL

—

Torreense

2.4WDWLD

Outcome probability

452629

Tondela45%Draw26%Torreense29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Tondela45%2.24—

XDraw26%3.78—

2Torreense29%3.45—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.25

No56%

ours 1.80

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTondelaTorreenseCombined

Goals scored1.171.332.50

Conceded1.001.332.33

Corners6.59.27.8

Cards3.32.25.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
TondelaTorreense
8Table position14
50.80%Possession52.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour CD Tondela: a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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