SC do Recife — Fortaleza EC, Serie B

Brazil, Serie BOctober 16 at 11:30 PM

SC do Recife

1.4LWLWL

—

Fortaleza EC

2.4DWDWW

Outcome probability

442927

SC do Recife44%Draw29%Fortaleza EC27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC do Recife44%2.25—

XDraw29%3.45—

2Fortaleza EC27%3.77—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.39

No58%

ours 1.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC do RecifeFortaleza ECCombined

Goals scored0.670.831.50

Conceded1.000.671.67

Corners11.07.79.3

Cards1.71.02.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC do RecifeFortaleza EC
9Table position3
2Matches in 14 days3
5.2Days of rest4.2
56.00%Possession57.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SC do Recife: a home win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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