FC Dordrecht — FC Emmen, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

FC Dordrecht

1.6WLLLL

—

FC Emmen

1.6WLLWL

Outcome probability

412337

FC Dordrecht41%Draw23%FC Emmen37%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Dordrecht41%2.45—

XDraw23%4.43—

2FC Emmen37%2.74—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes66%

ours 1.51

No34%

ours 2.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC DordrechtFC EmmenCombined

Goals scored1.331.332.66

Conceded3.172.005.17

Corners8.011.49.7

Cards1.62.23.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC DordrechtFC Emmen
18Table position6
52.20%Possession60.20%
6Days of rest6
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Dordrecht: a home win is rated at 41%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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