All matches

Mushuc Runa — Manta, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Mushuc Runa
1.6DLDDW
—
Manta
1.1WDLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
57%24%19%
Mushuc Runa57%Draw24%Manta19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mushuc Runa57%1.76—
XDraw24%4.08—
2Manta19%5.39—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMushuc RunaMantaCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded0.830.331.16
Corners10.38.09.2
Cards2.03.75.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Mushuc RunaManta

Mushuc Runa SC 57%, Manta FC 19%. The safest is “Mushuc Runa SC or draw” at 82%.

Mushuc Runa SC 57%Draw 24%Manta FC 19%
1st half
45 · 36 · 19
2nd half
39 · 39 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Mushuc Runa

  • awayCuenca1:1
  • awayGuayaquil City1:3
  • homeLeones del Norte1:1
  • awayLDU Quito0:0
  • homeDelfin1:0

Manta

  • homeOrense2:1
  • homeAucas0:0
  • awayEmelec0:1
  • awayMacara3:4
  • homeBarcelona SC2:0

Head to head

  • 08/01/26Primera Categoría Serie A2:1
  • 04/11/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:0
  • 11/08/25Primera Categoría Serie A0:3
  • 10/25/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:1
  • 08/30/25Primera Categoría Serie A2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Leones del Norte3110101132:3340
9Guayaquil City3110101134:3740
10Mushuc Runa319121036:3939
11Emelec311091226:3639
12Cuenca311071426:3837
13Orense31961637:4933
14Tecnico Universitario311031829:4333
15Delfin31781620:3229
16Manta31661919:4324

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.