All matches

Delfin — Manta, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Delfin
0.9DDLWL
—
Manta
1.1WDLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
48%27%25%
Delfin48%Draw27%Manta25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Delfin48%2.06—
XDraw27%3.75—
2Manta25%4.02—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.00

No50%

ours 2.00

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDelfinMantaCombined
Goals scored0.501.171.67
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners10.47.28.8
Cards2.83.05.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

DelfinManta

Delfin SC 48%, Manta FC 25%. The safest is “Delfin SC or draw” at 77%.

Delfin SC 48%Draw 27%Manta FC 25%
1st half
39 · 42 · 20
2nd half
36 · 40 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Delfin

  • awayTecnico Universitario1:1
  • awayBarcelona SC1:1
  • homeUniversidad Catolica del Ecuador0:1
  • homeTecnico Universitario1:0
  • awayMushuc Runa0:1

Manta

  • homeOrense2:1
  • homeAucas0:0
  • awayEmelec0:1
  • awayMacara3:4
  • homeBarcelona SC2:0

Head to head

  • 07/15/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:0
  • 03/14/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:1
  • 06/28/25Primera Categoría Serie A2:0
  • 03/04/25Primera Categoría Serie A2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13Orense31961637:4933
14Tecnico Universitario311031829:4333
15Delfin31781620:3229
16Manta31661919:4324

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.