All matches

Korona Kielce — GKS Katowice, Ekstraklasa

Poland, Ekstraklasa

Korona Kielce
2.0WLWDW
—
GKS Katowice
2.1WLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
45%26%30%
Korona Kielce45%Draw26%GKS Katowice30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Korona Kielce45%2.23—
XDraw26%3.92—
2GKS Katowice30%3.36—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.65

No39%

ours 2.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKorona KielceGKS KatowiceCombined
Goals scored1.000.671.67
Conceded1.001.172.17
Corners10.38.39.3
Cards1.52.33.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Korona KielceGKS Katowice

MKS Korona Kielce 45%, GKS Katowice 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

MKS Korona Kielce 45%Draw 26%GKS Katowice 30%
1st half
42 · 36 · 21
2nd half
30 · 39 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Korona Kielce

  • homeRakow3:2
  • homeGornik Zabrze0:2
  • awaySlask Wroclaw2:1
  • homeWisla Krakow1:1
  • awayWisla Plock2:0

GKS Katowice

  • homeCracovia Krakow3:2
  • awayZaglebie Lubin1:2
  • awayPiast Gliwice0:3
  • awayGornik Zabrze3:2
  • homeWisla Plock5:0

Head to head

  • 04/25/26Ekstraklasa1:1
  • 10/25/25Ekstraklasa0:1
  • 05/05/25Ekstraklasa2:1
  • 11/04/24Ekstraklasa2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Wisla Krakow952217:1217
5Pogon Szczecin843112:615
6Korona Kielce943212:1015
7Zaglebie Lubin943211:1015
8Piast Gliwice941416:1513
9GKS Katowice840416:1312
10Jagiellonia840412:1312
11Wisla Plock83239:1211

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.