Rakow — GKS Katowice, Ekstraklasa

Poland, EkstraklasaOctober 9 at 06:30 PM

Rakow

2.5LLWLL

—

GKS Katowice

2.1WLLWW

Outcome probability

422731

Rakow42%Draw27%GKS Katowice31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Rakow42%2.37—

XDraw27%3.74—

2GKS Katowice31%3.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes63%

ours 1.58

No37%

ours 2.71

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRakowGKS KatowiceCombined

Goals scored1.502.003.50

Conceded2.501.674.17

Corners10.09.59.8

Cards2.21.84.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
RakowGKS Katowice
18Table position9
55.50%Possession49.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
KS Raków Częstochowa look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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