All matches

GKS Katowice — Pogon Szczecin, Ekstraklasa

Poland, Ekstraklasa

GKS Katowice
2.1WLLWW
—
Pogon Szczecin
2.3WWDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
45%25%30%
GKS Katowice45%Draw25%Pogon Szczecin30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1GKS Katowice45%2.21—
XDraw25%3.97—
2Pogon Szczecin30%3.38—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.61

No38%

ours 2.65

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGKS KatowicePogon SzczecinCombined
Goals scored1.171.172.34
Conceded1.500.672.17
Corners10.57.08.8
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

GKS KatowicePogon Szczecin

GKS Katowice 45%, MKS Pogoń Szczecin 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

GKS Katowice 45%Draw 25%MKS Pogoń Szczecin 30%
1st half
36 · 36 · 28
2nd half
35 · 38 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

GKS Katowice

  • homeCracovia Krakow3:2
  • awayZaglebie Lubin1:2
  • awayPiast Gliwice0:3
  • awayGornik Zabrze3:2
  • homeWisla Plock5:0

Pogon Szczecin

  • awayPiast Gliwice2:1
  • homeWieczysta Krakow2:0
  • homeWisla Plock1:1
  • awayZaglebie Lubin0:0
  • homeWisla Krakow2:2

Head to head

  • 05/23/26Ekstraklasa1:1
  • 11/29/25Ekstraklasa2:0
  • 04/06/25Ekstraklasa0:4
  • 09/27/24Ekstraklasa3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Lech Poznan861117:719
4Wisla Krakow952217:1217
5Pogon Szczecin843112:615
6Korona Kielce943212:1015
7Zaglebie Lubin943211:1015
8Piast Gliwice941416:1513
9GKS Katowice840416:1312
10Jagiellonia840412:1312
11Wisla Plock83239:1211

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.